Author: Jeffrey Humphreys

One out of every 12 Georgia jobs is in some way dependent on the state’s deepwater ports. Each of the 159 counties benefits.

The increasing number of successful Asian entrepreneurs helps boost the group’s spending clout.

Home prices are holding up better in Columbus than at either the state or national level.

High fuel costs mean that truckers will face more competition from the railroads, which are much more fuel efficient.

The risk that a negative external shock or major policy mistake will tip our economy back into a recession is 40 percent for the U.S. and 45 percent for Georgia.

It will be at least 2015 before the labor market replaces the 8.8 million jobs lost during the period leading up to, during and in the immediate wake of the recession.

Painful as it has been, the restructuring of Georgia’s economy should enhance the state’s competitiveness going forward.

One job out of every 40 in the state owes its existence to the life sciences industry.

Georgia’s Intellectual Capital Partnership Program (ICAPP) sponsors an annual study that estimates the economic impact of college- or university-related spending. The statewide economic impact of the University System of Georgia’s 35 institutions in fiscal year 2010 was $12.6 billion in…

Although Athens was hit hard by the Great Recession, recovery is ongoing. The community will see 1.1 percent job growth this year, benefiting from expected growth in healthcare, an expanded engineering program at UGA and an undersized construction sector. The…

Macon will see 1.3 percent job growth in 2011, and Warner Robins will see about 1.2 percent. Those rates of increase are about the same as I expect for both the state and the nation. Several of the economic development…

Market conditions will improve for Georgia’s financial institutions, but regulatory changes will create some new challenges. The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act creates new regulators, extends regulations into new areas, provides new protections and gives regulators new abilities…

Retail growth sales should be sustained by gradual improvements in the labor market this year. Even small increases in jobs will give more people the confidence and the wherewithal to spend slightly more for retail items. Personal income growth is…

The 2011 Georgia forecast calls for the inflation-adjusted GDP to increase by 2.3 percent, a significant improvement over the 1 percent increase estimated for 2010. The annual percentage gain in the state’s GDP this year will essentially match that of…

The economic recovery that began in the second half of 2009 will be sustained, but the rate of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth will be lower in 2011 than in 2010. The lower growth rate reflects waning federal fiscal…

Earlier this decade, Georgia’s information industry took a big hit from the collapse of the technology bubble. Although the industry was not the epicenter of the “Great Recession,” spending for information services declined, further intensifying the industry’s ongoing job losses.…

The most worrisome tail risk to the overall economy is the increased number of defaults on home mortgages. We see homeowners who are able to make their mortgage payments simply opt to walk away. According to CoreLogic, nearly 29 percent…

Even in the worst economy since the Great Depression, the economic contribution of Georgia’s deepwater ports remains relatively constant. The statewide economic impact for the 2009 fiscal year is $61.7 billion in sales, or 8.6 percent of the state’s total;…

In 2006, insurers posted their best underwriting performance in 57 years, emphasizing premium growth over market share. But the industry was sorely tested over the next two years as insurers flinched and premiums declined. In 2008-09, capital erosion led to…

Berry College recently asked me to estimate the potential economic impact of a proposed 74-court tennis center in Rome. If built, for an estimated $13.6 million, it would be the largest facility of its type in the nation, making Rome…

After collapsing by more than 10 percent in the first half of last year, retail sales will expand moderately in 2010. Continuing job losses will modulate the effect, but by mid-year the labor market situation should stabilize, causing personal income…

In 2010, I expect lodging demand to rise modestly from very depressed levels, but because the market is grossly overbuilt the challenges facing the industry will remain intense. In many lodging markets, supply bubbles developed because the industry’s impressive performance…

How will Georgia fare in 2010? I forecast state GDP to increase by about 1.5 percent, a lot better than the 4 percent decline estimated for 2009 but below my overall prediction for the U.S. Georgia will continue to suffer…

I firmly believe that the longest and most severe recession since the Great Depression is over. The recovery that began in the second half of 2009 is not going to fall apart, but it will be bumpy. I don’t expect…

Georgia’s prolonged and severe housing downturn ended in the second quarter of 2009, when single-family housing starts bottomed at 12,500 units. For the single-family housing subsector, the peak-to-trough plunge in housing starts was 88 percent. The free fall, which began…