The most worrisome tail risk to the overall economy is the increased number of defaults on home mortgages. We see homeowners who are able to make their mortgage payments simply opt to walk away. According to CoreLogic, nearly 29 percent…
Even in the worst economy since the Great Depression, the economic contribution of Georgia’s deepwater ports remains relatively constant. The statewide economic impact for the 2009 fiscal year is $61.7 billion in sales, or 8.6 percent of the state’s total;…
Both the U.S. and Georgia economies are performing slightly – but not dramatically – better than expected, but I’m still concerned about the stability of the credit markets and the housing markets. Domestically, I worry most about an increased number…
In 2006, insurers posted their best underwriting performance in 57 years, emphasizing premium growth over market share. But the industry was sorely tested over the next two years as insurers flinched and premiums declined. In 2008-09, capital erosion led to…
Berry College recently asked me to estimate the potential economic impact of a proposed 74-court tennis center in Rome. If built, for an estimated $13.6 million, it would be the largest facility of its type in the nation, making Rome…
After collapsing by more than 10 percent in the first half of last year, retail sales will expand moderately in 2010. Continuing job losses will modulate the effect, but by mid-year the labor market situation should stabilize, causing personal income…
In 2010, I expect lodging demand to rise modestly from very depressed levels, but because the market is grossly overbuilt the challenges facing the industry will remain intense. In many lodging markets, supply bubbles developed because the industry’s impressive performance…
How will Georgia fare in 2010? I forecast state GDP to increase by about 1.5 percent, a lot better than the 4 percent decline estimated for 2009 but below my overall prediction for the U.S. Georgia will continue to suffer…
I firmly believe that the longest and most severe recession since the Great Depression is over. The recovery that began in the second half of 2009 is not going to fall apart, but it will be bumpy. I don’t expect…
Georgia’s prolonged and severe housing downturn ended in the second quarter of 2009, when single-family housing starts bottomed at 12,500 units. For the single-family housing subsector, the peak-to-trough plunge in housing starts was 88 percent. The free fall, which began…
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