May the Best Candidates Win

On Nov. 3 Georgians will render big decisions, the repercussions of which will stretch into the 2030s. We’ll elect a full slate of candidates who’ll bridge our state into the next decade, and we’ll decide the color of that bridge, whether blue or red or a little of both.

We’ve suffered no shortage of election drama in the past three election cycles, starting with the tiny margin for President Joe Biden in 2020 that ignited controversies that still echo today, and the election of two Democrats in a runoff that determined control of the U.S. Senate. National attention returned in 2022 for the high-profile rematch between Gov. Brian Kemp and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams and the Senate faceoff between incumbent Raphael Warnock and football legend Herschel Walker. In 2024, Georgia once again had one of the smallest margins in the country, this time flipping back to the red column.

Those elections all had national implications, but we’d have to go back to 2018 to find one that was truly as consequential for the future of the state as this month’s contest is.

Then, as now, most state constitutional offices were open seats, with new blood, new perspectives and perhaps new parties coming into powerful positions.

One difference from eight years ago is voters’ awareness that Georgia is a jump ball. Either team can win if they have the right environment, strong candidates and well-funded campaigns. In 2018, state Republicans didn’t yet believe this. Gov. Nathan Deal had won reelection by seven points in 2014, President Donald Trump won by five in 2016. Many thought, wrongly, that having “R” behind a candidate’s name in a general election guaranteed victory.

Kemp’s margin of a little over 50,000 and Democrats’ significant pickups in the General Assembly should have ended any such delusions.

Then, as now, it’s a midterm during a Trump administration. And then, as now, Trump’s party faces headwinds. That favors the Democrats. But what might once again benefit the Republicans running for statewide constitutional offices is the party’s record of leadership. Many Georgians are prospering and want the good times to keep flowing. For those who feel the most squeezed by rising prices and worry that they can’t get ahead, they shouldn’t blame the politicians who’ve cut their taxes by billions of dollars in the past few years.

Certainly, in our highly tribalized electorate where all politics emanate from Washington, most voters disappointed or angry with Trump will just vote a straight Democratic ticket. Those voters will put wind in Democrats’ sails, but it won’t be enough to get them to a majority in statewide races. The high-information voters – largely college-educated Metro Atlantans – who rendered a split decision in 2022 will once again choose race by race based on candidate quality.

In the governor’s race, polling at the end of summer showed it neck and neck. Shortly after June’s runoffs, Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff held a double-digit lead in the Senate race, but that massive advantage closed to more normal margins as voters began to tune in.

A majority of voters in 2018 were itching to protest what was happening on the federal level, and Kemp’s super-Trumpy primary campaign, with its guns, trucks and explosions, alienated many metro area Republicans. Abrams appeared headed to victory until October when she demeaned careers in agriculture and hospitality – our two biggest industries – and claimed the “blue wave” would be “comprised of those who are documented and undocumented.” Just enough discerning Georgians decided that, even though they wanted change, they didn’t want a radically different direction for the state.

Then, as now, the Republicans’ chances depend on enough discerning voters who are angry with what’s happening on the national level but perfectly OK with how Georgia is governed. The number of these voters that I call the Deciders might range between 250,000 to 400,000. That’s a number bigger than most winning margins we’ve seen here in a long time.

For voters who are laser-focused on national issues, they have a federal race – Ossoff against Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins – to express their thoughts and perhaps blow off steam. In the governor’s race, though, the Deciders who disapprove of Trump might also cast a leery eye on Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms’ record as Atlanta mayor. They recognize that a protest vote might feel good in the moment but ultimately turn the state in a wrong direction over a four-year term.

Discerning voters made the right call in 2018. Then, as now, the stakes were high. Go vote like your future depends on it, because it does.

Brian Robinson owns communications consulting firm Robinson Republic.