Duncan’s Narrow Path to Nomination
A devout evangelical, Duncan could paint his complete conversion as a Road to Damascus moment in his life, where he was “born again.”
On the week that former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan announced his candidacy to run as a Democrat for governor, I woke up to a text from a former Democratic state House member. The message contained only a 2019 photo, offered without commentary, of Duncan smiling broadly behind Gov. Brian Kemp as he signed the Heartbeat Bill that banned abortions after the point that a heartbeat is detected on an ultrasound.
Duncan championed that legislation during his first year as lieutenant governor, a job that gave him significant control over the state Senate. He used those same powers to support passage of the 2022 Constitutional Carry legislation that allows gunowners to carry a weapon in public without a government-issued permit.
Democrats, of course, fiercely opposed those pieces of legislation and would seek to repeal them if given the chance. In fact, during Duncan’s entire legislative career, which also includes three terms in the state House, he racked up a voting record far from the mainstream of the Democratic Party. In 2015, Duncan aligned himself with the most conservative elements of the GOP by opposing the broadly supported transportation bill that raised gas taxes to pay for new roads and bridges.
Duncan touted his staunch conservatism enroute to the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor in 2018. News clips from that period show him waiting to shake hands and pose with President Donald Trump when he landed in Atlanta. In 2019, he posted on Facebook that Democrats would “do anything to destroy the president, their party and their values, wanting to move the country towards socialism.”
Photo credit: duncanforgeorgia.com
When Duncan first announced that he’d run for governor as a Democrat, I joined a chorus of bipartisan voices to cast doubt on his chances.
In an era when voters reward rough-around-the-edges authenticity over political robots programmed to deliver polished talking points, it seemed a candidate who’d done a complete 180 on every divisive issue would face a mountain of credibility problems. As a Republican, Duncan boasted that he put “policy over politics” – a claim that ruffled feathers given the implication that his colleagues don’t – but Duncan now says he doesn’t agree with the policies he was talking about then. It’s impossible to argue his policy stances are driven by principle, which isn’t subject to radical change.
Duncan is the only white candidate in a primary where most voters are Black. Duncan’s chances depend on many Black voters choosing him over serious, experienced Black candidates, including former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Atlanta school board Chair and state Sen. Jason Esteves and former Georgia Labor Commissioner and DeKalb CEO Michael Thurmond.
At first glance, I thought those obstacles pointed to a doomed effort – and that may still turn out to be the case. But on second glance, I’m beginning to see a potential pathway for Duncan.
A devout evangelical, Duncan could paint his complete conversion as a Road to Damascus moment in his life, where he was “born again.” I wouldn’t use that language in a party that’s veered heavily toward secularism over the past generation, but there’s no zealot like a convert.
Democratic voters could fairly conclude that his change of heart stems from conviction so strong that he literally gave up his political career as a Republican statewide elected official to devote his life to fighting Trump. Among all the Democratic factions today, it’s opposition to Trump that unifies them above all else.
Duncan will have to strategically stake out some liberal positions to prove his bona fides with progressives, but his perceived centrism could benefit him in two ways. One, Black and Latino voters are the most moderate demographic in the Democratic coalition, and they have a bigger voice in a Georgia primary than most anywhere in the country. Second, Democrats in the age of Trump are hungry for a winner, and they may think that a white, straight man is their best shot at winning a general election.
Democratic insiders say Duncan’s gotten some buzz with the party’s DC chieftains. With perhaps the most telegenic profile we’ve ever seen in Georgia politics, Duncan has the charisma and skill to connect with voters. If he can build a completely new fundraising base from scratch and haul in big dollars, if he can convince Democrats he’s truly one of them and if he’s seen as the best shot at winning the governorship, he has a path to the nomination – or at least into a runoff. 
Brian Robinson is co-host of WABE’s Political Breakfast podcast.
