Bellwether Cities

Americans are familiar with the political maxim, “as Maine goes, so goes the nation.” When it comes to the Georgia economy, the saying could be, “as Gainesville, Milledgeville and Warner Robins go, so goes the state.”

MarketBeat, a financial media company, surveyed 3,021 business leaders nationwide, asking: Where do changes in hiring, spending or inflation sensitivity show up first? They named Gainesville, the state’s poultry capital; Milledgeville because it’s a regional center for education and healthcare; and Warner Robins, the home of Robins Air Force Base, where it’s relatively easy to track the ups and downs with federal budgets and defense contracting.

The survey finds if hiring slows or production diminishes in Gainesville’s plants, there’s a far-reaching effect. In Milledgeville, home of Georgia College and State University, fluctuations in student enrollment and healthcare employment can reflect broader trends in other mid-sized cities. And in Warner Robins, when military-related construction or spending decreases, it signals shifts in government hiring and contracting in the central part of the state.

Matt Paulson, founder of MarketBeat, referred to these signal cities as “not just towns on a map – they’re the places where new trends, pressures and recoveries start to show themselves first. For anyone watching what’s next, this is where to look.”