Ossoff’s Vulnerability
Political handicappers rate Ossoff as the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent this cycle.
The political ad begins with a female swimmer at the starting block, poised for a race. Next to her is a young man in a women’s swimsuit. As he crouches into position, the male swimmer turns to the camera and smiles knowingly. The man wins the race and hoists a trophy over the exasperated young woman.
Then-state Sen. Butch Miller’s campaign for lieutenant governor aired the spot during the 2022 primary elections. Before the trophy presentation, Miller says that girls’ sports are for girls only, and that’s why he wrote a law prohibiting transgender athletes from competing in girls’ sports.
As it turns out, he fell short in that campaign, but his commercial stood out that primary season. It hit on a wedge issue that outrages conservatives while also appealing to independents and even Democrats. A 2025 New York Times-Ipsos poll showed 79% of Americans support banning people who were male at birth but currently identify as female from girls’ and women’s sports. The number is 94% from Republicans, but more telling is the 67% support from Democrats and 64% support from independents.
Miller didn’t advance in that race, but the issue did. Prohibiting males from participating in interscholastic and intercollegiate competitions on teams designated as female became state law this legislative session. The U.S. House of Representatives passed similar legislation this year with some Democratic support – but in the Senate version of the bill, both of Georgia’s Democratic U.S. senators voted no.
The issue is one where many Democratic officeholders are held captive by loud and well-funded activists. If they vote with the far left, they lose the middle. If they vote for the position held by most Americans though, they’re slammed by the party’s extremes. Some savvy Democrats have learned this issue is a major loser, and they’re changing course. Even liberal Gov. Gavin Newsom of California now admits his party is out of touch on that issue.
That’s what makes U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff’s vote so striking. His vote arms Republicans with a potent issue to run against him when he runs for reelection next year. The attack ads write themselves – expect to see a commercial that steals from Miller’s.
U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff. Photo credit: official senator photo provided
Ossoff also divided his supporters with an earlier vote to oppose arms sales to Israel, another issue that sharply divides Democrats but where 46% of Americans support Israel compared to 33% who back the Palestinians in their conflict. This vote led some prominent Jewish Georgians to seek a Republican challenger they could support. Neither past nor future pro-Israel votes will erase the effects of Ossoff’s momentous decision on that bill.
With Republicans controlling the Senate and thus controlling what gets to the floor, Ossoff might continually face lose-lose situations that pit the preferences of his liberal base with the more conservative leanings of the “deciders,” those few hundred thousand discerning voters who in Georgia provide the majority margin.
To be fair, Ossoff has sometimes bucked his party. He wisely supported the Laken Riley Act, named after a Georgia nursing student who was murdered on the University of Georgia campus by someone who entered the U.S. illegally. That’s an example of a vote that satisfies not only Republicans and the deciders, but also moderate Democrats flabbergasted by the chaos resulting from former President Joe Biden’s lax border controls. Although Democrats breathed a huge sigh of relief when Gov. Brian Kemp announced he would not challenge Ossoff for the Senate seat in 2026, political handicappers still rate Ossoff as the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent this cycle. Since Ossoff’s upset win over a sitting senator in 2020, Georgia Republicans have regained their mojo.
Regardless, Republicans shouldn’t confuse “vulnerable” with “sitting duck.” Ossoff has the power of incumbency and goodwill from across the political spectrum for strong constituent services. He’ll potentially benefit from a midterm environment where the party in the White House faces headwinds, and given the importance of his seat to Democrats, campaign donations will flow in like torrents from a hurricane hitting the Golden Isles.
He’ll need all of those advantages because polling numbers have consistently shown Ossoff below 50% in head-to-head matchups with Republican challengers. That’s an extraordinarily dangerous spot for an incumbent. It shows that the deciders are far from sold on his reelection.
Opposition to President Donald Trump, not Ossoff’s votes on Israel or trans issues, will energize the Democratic base in 2026. The senior senator’s victory or loss will come down to the deciders, and these recent votes won’t win them over. 
Brian Robinson is on The Georgia Gang Sundays on WAGA/Fox 5 Atlanta. He won a Green Eyeshade Award in 2024 for Humorous Commentary/Magazines for the column he writes for Georgia Trend.
