Off to the Races

In exactly one year, Georgia Republicans and Democrats will vote in primaries to pick nominees for an election that will reverberate into the 2030s. Both parties will compete vigorously to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, and Republicans will jockey for the chance to take on incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

Those are big decisions for voters to render. But it’s just the beginning. We’ll have open seats for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and possibly insurance commissioner – all positions where the present elected officials are looking at higher office. Georgians will also elect a successor to the late Labor Commissioner Bruce Thompson.

Many state legislators will look to fill these positions, leading to a good bit of turnover in the General Assembly – where a governor’s spokesman said “you can’t throw a rock without hitting” a potential candidate for higher office.

A churn of state senators won’t have too much partisan impact as the Republican majority there will remain firmly entrenched. In the House, both the Republican and Democratic caucuses will work to persuade incumbents in potential swing districts to run again, which lowers costs and strengthens the chance of victory. With 100 Republicans and 80 Democrats, the state House is on the front lines of partisan battle in the state.

So that’s the playing field. Now let’s look at each party’s path to victory.

The parties will focus on what they can control, namely money and candidate quality. Both are crucial to success. The campaigns for governor and U.S. Senate will spend hundreds of millions of dollars because the stakes are so high – and because both parties go into the election believing they can. The elections downballot won’t have that kind of cash, but still tens of millions will go into those efforts.

When hundreds of millions are spent, campaigns reach a point of diminishing returns on each additional dollar expended, but it’s like a nuclear arms race: Both sides feel compelled to keep up with the other.

Photo credit: iStock

When it comes to who ultimately wins the two big races, candidates and campaigns matter. Candidates need a winning personality, compelling message and a willingness to work night and day through a stressful grind.

Primary voters anxious for their party to win must consider more than just who aligns the most with their principles. They need to factor in who will best appeal to the Deciders. The Deciders, a group of perhaps a couple hundred thousand, are the Georgia voters who provide the margin of victory in statewide elections. They are largely in Metro Atlanta, radiating out from Buckhead into the suburbs, and they’re more educated and wealthier than the average voter.

In 2022, the Deciders voted for Kemp and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. In Fulton County, Kemp ran 25,000 votes ahead of fellow Republican Herschel Walker, who was running against Warnock. In deep red Forsyth County, the difference between the two was 8,000. Extrapolate that across Metro Atlanta and you reach margins that determine elections. These discerning voters play close attention to campaigns, and candidates must clear the bar of credibility with them. Republicans maintain a slight advantage in the electorate, but Democrats can score an upset with the right matchup.

Equally as important as money and candidate quality – perhaps more so – is the political environment, and Trump will command center stage. The late U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously said that “all politics is local.” Those days are gone. Today, all politics is national.

Assuming the parties both nominate strong standard-bearers and vacuum up enough cash, the political environment could provide the determining factor. History holds that the party in the White House faces headwinds in a midterm election. Democrats will need that bump given the GOP’s enduring advantage in the electorate.

What will matter most is Trump’s approval rating in Georgia. If the economy is humming and Trump’s approval nears 50%, Republicans should win. If Trump’s numbers are in the low 40s or below, Democrats have a shot.

Partisans should pray for serenity to accept the political environment, the courage to select the candidate most likely to win and the wisdom to know what’s beyond their control.